Posted by: Christian Wulff | November 22, 2012

Predictions Mea Culpa – The First Annual AHBMCAs

It’s the day of reckoning for three esteemed twitterers (and myself) who write about Norwegian football in English. The first A Hell of Beating Mea Culpa Award (AHBMCA) for accurate Tippeligaen predictions has been finalised and the winner is, eh, me. But first, let’s have a look at how our predictions eight months ago face up to reality.

Tippeligaen 2012 ended like this:

1. Molde

2. Strømsgodset

3. Rosenborg

4. Tromsø

5. Viking

6. Brann

7. Haugesund

8. Vålerenga

9. Lillestrøm

10. Odd Grenland

11. Aalesund

12. Sogndal

13. Hønefoss

14. Sandnes Ulf

15. Fredrikstad

16. Stabæk

Our combined predictions were:

1. Molde

2. Rosenborg

3. Vålerenga

4. Tromsø

5. Viking

6. Brann

7. Aalesund

8. Lillestrøm

9. Odd Grenland

10. Strømsgodset

11. Haugesund

12. Fredrikstad

13. Stabæk

14. Sandnes Ulf

15. Hønefoss

16. Sogndal

A decent attempt, with five correct placements (Molde, Tromsø, Viking, Brann and Sandnes Ulf), two teams one place away from the correct position (Lillestrøm and Odd), and one team two places away (Hønefoss). Using the newly invented AHBMCAs rules (3 points for correct place prediction, 2 points for 1 place away, 1 point for 2 places away) the average prediction table gets 18 points.

The positive and negative surprises of the year are instantly clear; We tipped Strømsgodset a full eight places lower than their impressive second place with Vålerenga the disappointment, finishing five places lower than predicted.

When we look at the individual predictions, Vegard Flemmen Vaagbø (@RBFlemma) and Ben Cullimore (@thenorsenetwork) both get 16 points andboth had two correct positions predicted. Ben claims third place by virtue of having five predictions only one place away from the final outcome compared to Vegard’s four.

@RBFlemma

1. Molde

2. Rosenborg

3. Lillestrøm

4. Viking

5. Aalesund

6. Vålerenga

7. Brann

8. Tromsø

9. Strømsgodset

10. Haugesund

11. Odd Grenland

12. Fredrikstad

13. Stabæk

14. Sandnes Ulf

15. Hønefoss

16. Sogndal

Correct placement: Molde, Sandnes Ulf

One away: Rosenborg, Viking, Brann, Odd Grenland

Two away: Vålerenga, Hønefoss

16 points

Furthest away – team doing better than predicted: Strømsgodset – 7 places

Furthest away – team doing worse than predicted: Lillestrøm and Aalesund – 6 places

@thenorsenetwork

1. Molde

2. Rosenborg

3. Tromsø

4. Vålerenga

5. Brann

6. Odd Grenland

7. Strømgodset

8. Haugesund

9. Viking

10. Aalesund

11. Stabæk

12. Fredrikstad

13. Lillestrøm

14. Sandnes Ulf

15. Sogndal

16. Hønefoss

Correct placement: Molde, Sandnes Ulf

One away: Rosenborg, Tromsø, Brann, Haugesund, Aalesund

16 points

Furthest away – team doing better than predicted: Strømsgodset – 5 places

Furthest away – team doing worse than predicted: Stabæk -5 places

So it was down to the esteemed Brendan Husebø (@brendanhusebo) and myself to see who would win the first annual AHBMCA award and it was every bit as nail biting as the Tippeligaen title run in with one point the difference in the end. Brendan had an incredible six teams within one place of their correct position, but only two teams in the correct position means that I reluctantly have to award myself the award. Key to my glorious victory was getting four teams in the correct position, Hønefoss’ late collapse helping me to a famous win.

@brendanhusebo

1. Molde

2. Rosenborg

3. Vålerenga

4. Brann

5. Viking

6. Tromsø

7. Aalesund

8. Lillestrøm

9. Odd Grenland

10. Haugesund

11. Strømsgodset

12. Fredrikstad

13. Sandnes Ulf

14. Hønefloss

15. Stabæk

16. Sogndal

Correct placement: Molde, Viking

One away: Rosenborg, Lillestrøm, Odd Grenland, Sandnes Ulf, Hønefoss, Stabæk

Two away: Brann, Tromsø

20 points

Furthest away – team doing better than predicted: Strømsgodset – 9 places

Furthest away – team doing worse than predicted: Vålerenga – 5 places

@ahellofabeating

1. Molde

2. Rosenborg

3. Vålerenga

4. Tromsø

5. Viking

6. Odd Grenland

7. Brann

8. Lillestrøm

9. Aalesund

10. Strømsgodset

11. Haugesund

12. Fredrikstad

13. Hønefoss

14. Stabæk

15. Sogndal

16. Sandnes Ulf

Correct placement: Molde, Tromsø, Viking, Hønefoss

One away: Rosenborg, Brann, Lillestrøm

Two away: Stabæk, Sandnes Ulf, Aalesund

21 points

Furthest away – team doing better than predicted: Strømsgodset – 8 places

Furthest away – team doing worse than predicted: Vålerenga – 5 places

The AHBMCAs will return next season with hopefully an even larger array of predictions as the Norwegian Football in English family slowly but steadily grows on Twitter.

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Responses

  1. […] of four have this year doubled to eight, all now having to endure a excruciating wait until the 2nd annual AHBMCAs are decided in […]


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